Election scenarios from probable to outlandish
In an election year that has seen a 74-year-old Democratic-Socialist rally millions of college students, a xenophobic billionaire cruise towards the Republican nomination, and the miserable downward spiral of the once-upon-a-time frontrunner, Jeb Bush, the only thing I can be certain of is my transformation into a political junkie.
It's not just me; the whole nation has become obsessed with what seems more like a soap opera than a political process, with some Republican debates receiving higher TV viewership than the average NBA finals game. After March 15th, over half of Republican and Democratic delegates will have been awarded, and it seems like the madness will be close to over. But if 2016 has taught us anything, it’s that craziness always has a chance to trump upstage the status quo. Here are my odds for the remaining possible scenarios.
Methodology note: Likelihood percentages are based off of CNN's Political Prediction Market, Odds Shark, Five Thirty Eight's "Who's on Track for the Nomination?", and the from the New York Times' "Delegate Calculator."
And the Democratic Nominee is…
Hillary Clinton—97%
After winning seven states on Super Tuesday, Hillary can finally take a breath of fresh air. This is in part due to her huge margins among Black and Latinx voters who helped propel her to big wins across the South and West.
Bernie Sanders— 3%
Bernie does still have a shot at the nomination, but it’s closing fast. This would require him to win big in all the remaining majority-white and liberal states, along with those with working-class populations such as Oklahoma, which he won on Tuesday, and Kansas and Nebraska, which he won on Saturday.
And the GOP Nomination goes to…
Donald Trump—60%
After a dominating performance on Super Tuesday, major media outlets have been talking as if Trump has all but secured his place as the Republican nominee. CNN’s Political Prediction Market puts his chances of nomination at 77%, and the New York Times called his Super Tuesday victory "dominating." Trump may be well on track for the nomination, but this could change if he loses one or both of the winner-take all delegate-rich contests ahead in Ohio and Florida, in which he will be competing against Rubio and Kasich in their home states.
Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz—25%
This would revolve mainly around whether one or the other drops out of the race. So far Trump has averaged just 37% of the vote, which could become a problem if the race turns into a one on one contest. However, that would require an ego-deflating agreement to be reached between Rubio and Cruz, who both have reasons to believe that their own campaign will have a better shot of beating Trump in a one on one race.Ted Cruz can make his case for staying in because he leads Rubio in both the state and delegate counts, (which he extended on Saturday with victories in Maine and Kansas) while Rubio can point to his favorability in the contests ahead and large establishment backing. Rubio would also benefit more than Cruz or Trump if Kasich drops out, which he said he would if he loses his home state of Ohio.
The GOP Convention—15%
If neither of the Republican candidates reach the required 1237 delegates to become the uncontested nominee, the Republican establishment will decide on a nominee when they convene at the Republican convention July 18-21 in Cleveland, Ohio. The decision does not have to be based on the popular vote, which means the convention could result in a near impossible puzzle where the party interests will try to choose a candidate that can win a general election, yet wouldn’t piss off their voter base. Here are some of their options.
— Donald Trump–5%
This would happen if Trump wins a clear plurality of the delegates over Cruz and Rubio. Even though the Republican establishment has launched a no-holds-barred campaign to take down Trump, a clear rejection of the GOP electorate’s clear choice could decimate the party in the general election.
— Marco Rubio or John Kasich–5%
However, if there is no clear leader after the last primary state votes, or if Rubio receives more votes than the other candidates, but still falls short of the nomination, GOP leaders could jump on the chance to nominate a candidate who falls more within party lines. Kasich could be a good pick, because he both comes from the important swing state of Ohio and wouldn’t be as contentious as a choice among supporters of Trump, Rubio, or Cruz. Kasich actually described a contested convention as his main strategy to slide into a nomination.
— Mitt Romney?–5%
Wait, Romney? But he’s not even running?
Although current Republican convention rules require winning eight states in order to become the nominee, there is a chance the GOP could modify the rules last-minute and pick someone not initially in the primary contest. After he came back into the spotlight Thursday to condemn Donald Trump for “playing the American public for suckers," it looks possible that Mitt Romney could be this unprecedented candidate.
A Formidable Third Party Candidate runs in the General election: 17%
— From the Right–10%
If Trump is their nominee, it would be a huge loss for Republican establishment. Not only has Trump helped create an highly unfavorable intolerant and xenophobic image of the GOP, but he has also been inconsistent on his conservative views especially when it comes to health care, and shrinking the size of government. This could spark an effort to push forward another candidate who could win over conservative voters in the general election.
— From the Center–5%
Michael Bloomberg said that he would only run if Bernie was the Democratic nominee, but it’s possible another political figure could emerge as a moderate alternative to Clinton and Trump. This could be someone like Nevada Republican Governor Brian Sandoval, who is widely popular in his home state, and reportedly turned down Obama’s consideration of him for a Supreme Court nomination earlier this month.
— Donald Trump–10%
If Trump feels like he has been wronged by the GOP establishment, his threats to run as a third-party candidate could come to fruition, which would likely guarantee the Democrats four more years in the White House.
— Multiple of the above–2%
It’s possible that one credible third-party run could spur another. This could create a scenario in which no candidate receives the delegates necessary to become president, and if that happens, the decision is handed to the state delegations of Republican-held House of Representatives.